The Washington Commanders own a compelling storyline as they head into Thursday night’s game at the New York Giants to kick off Week 10 of the NFL season.
The Commanders (2-5-1) are ahead of only division-rival Philadelphia in the NFC standings, and coach Dan Quinn could become the first coach fired this season should Washington lose Thursday night.
However, with a win against the Giants (5-2-1), the Commanders would close to within just two games of New York in the NFC East standings while gaining the head-to-head tiebreaker.
That dynamic makes for a true make-or-break scenario for Washington — and likely Quinn — on Thursday night.
ODDS AND TRENDS
Both teams squandered excellent chances to win the first meeting, which ended in a 27-27 tie at Washington on Oct. 11. The Giants are consensus 2-point favorites at home on Thursday night, suggesting oddsmakers see a very decent potential for an upset.
The line opened at just 1.5 at BetMGM, and ticked up a half-point with the Giants attracting 73% of the bets and 60% of the money wagered on the spread. New York also has drawn 59% of the action in both markets on its -130 moneyline to win the game outright.
The total points line has shifted from 43.5 to 41, which has helped spur 56% of the bets and 57% of the money backing the Over. Each of the Commanders’ past six road games against NFC East opponents have gone Over the total points line, according to DraftKings.
PROP PICKS
–Commanders QB Jayden Daniels Over 35.5 Rushing Yards (-125 at BetMGM): This has been the most popular player prop at the book. The oft-injured Daniels has been more selective with his scrambling this season, topping 31 rushing yards just twice in six games. One of those occasions was a 103-yard effort on nine carries against the Giants, who are allowing an average of 123.6 rushing yards per game.
–Giants RB Cam Skattebo Anytime TD Scorer (+120 at DraftKings): Skattebo returns after missing last week’s game, which saw New York’s running backs combine for only 51 yards on 25 carries with no touchdowns. Skattebo has only two rushing touchdowns on the season — compared with three fumbles — but is the Giants’ best short-yardage option with Tyrone Tracy Jr. on IR.
COMMANDING DESPERATION
Washington is 1-3-1 in its past five games, including Sunday’s 20-13 home loss to the Los Angeles Rams. But Quinn doesn’t want the “must-win” label affixed to the contest.
“I think everyone in this building understands that, so I’m not big on declarations,” Quinn said, “but I think everybody here knows the importance of this game Thursday night and our readiness to go battle the division leaders at their spot. So, yeah, we all know how badly we need this.”
Daniels passed for 274 yards and one touchdown against the Rams. In last month’s game against New York, he passed for 199 yards and rushed for a season-high 103 yards and two touchdowns.
The third-year pro said he learned a lot about the Giants in the first matchup.
“We know the Giants, they have a lot of good athletic players that they like to get in the mix and blitz and try to create mismatches,” Daniels said. “We just have to prepare for that.”
MCCARTHY’S GIANT HOME DEBUT
New York is fresh off consecutive road victories over the Houston Texans (27-21 in overtime) and Philadelphia Eagles (19-11) and is beginning a stretch of four games in six at home.
Quarterback J.J. McCarthy suffered a hip injury in the win over Philadelphia, but he said Tuesday that he will play against the Commanders.
McCarthy also will be making his first home start since being acquired from the Minnesota Vikings in September.
“I haven’t thought about it until now, but I’m just so blessed to be a part of this team,” McCarthy said. “… At the end of the day, it’s running out there to do my job at a high level and go get a win on Thursday night. That’s the only thing I care about.”
KEY STAT
Daniels has yet to throw an interception through 180 pass attempts this season and has only one lost fumble through six games. However, he has been sacked 16 times.
INJURY REPORT
GIANTS: Skattebo (hamstring) was a full practice participant Wednesday and didn’t receive an injury designation. McCarthy, wide receiver Malik Nabers (knee) and left tackle Andrew Thomas (groin) also were full participants and are ready to go. Outside linebacker Malik Harrison (groin) was limited and is listed as questionable.
COMMANDERS: Center Lucas Patrick (concussion) and tight end Colson Yankoff (knee) were ruled out after neither practiced all week. Wide receiver Treylon Burks (foot) missed practice Wednesday but is expected to play.
RECENT SERIES HISTORY
The Commanders had defeated the Giants four consecutive times prior to the tie.
THEY SAID IT
“We want to go 1-0 but this game is more than 1-0. It’s 2-0, just because the last game ended out in a tie that we should have had. So, both of us are fighting to get this game. We’re trying to go 2-0 since we finished off in a tie last time, which we should have won.” –Nabers
PREDICTION
There is plenty of motivation to go around in this bitter division rivalry. With a win, the Giants pull further away in the NFC East. With a loss, they bring Dallas and Washington right back into the mix. The Commanders have plenty of tools to pull the upset but have been dogged by numerous mental mistakes by Daniels and Quinn in close defeats this season. –Giants 23, Commanders 20
